Although a major rally is expected in Bitcoin in 2025, analysts are not in full agreement. While some analysts state that BTC may have already reached its cycle peak, others say that the peak is still to come.
At this point, 21 Shares analysts noted that Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle top according to three on-chain indicators.
In their latest report, 21Shares analysts argued that Bitcoin has not yet reached the peak of this bull market cycle and there is still room for the market to rise, based on three on-chain indicators: MVRV ratio, unrealized net profit and loss, and long-term investor sell-off risk ratio.
Analysts who examined these indicators one by one said the following:
1. MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value): The MVRV value is currently between 2.5 and 3. Although there are local tops, it is far from the cycle top of 7.
Analysts noted that currently, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio is still well below 7, indicating that a major cycle top has not yet been reached.
Analysts added that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio could reach 7 only if its price surpasses $200,000.
2. Unrealized Profit and Loss Indicator: This value currently ranges from 0.5 to 0.75.
Analysts said that if this ratio reaches 0.75, it would signal a sense of excitement or greed and indicate that the market has reached its peak.
3. Long-term investor sell risk ratio: This ratio is currently only 0.4%. It is significantly lower than the overheating and peak threshold of 0.8%. In other words, if this ratio reaches 0.8%, the market is considered to have entered an overheated state. At this point, we can see that the recent pullback was mainly caused by short-term investors.
*This is not investment advice.
