Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has predicted that asset manager Vanguard will unlikely launch a spot in the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. In a post on X, Balchunas said the firm might eventually allow its clients to trade the Bitcoin ETFs through its platform.
According to Balchunas, the demand from Vanguard clients could force the firm to change its position once Bitcoin gets to the $150,000 – $200,000 range.
My take: Vanguard won’t launch a bitcoin ETF prob ever. But.. I could see them lightening up and letting them be traded on their platform in next year or two, esp if bitcoin hits $150k or $200k, they gonna get sick of being asked about it by customers and their new CEO is one of… https://t.co/SHj75lywUo
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 19, 2025
Balchunas added that, due to the fact that Vanguard’s current CEO, Salim Ramji, is also one of the creators of the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT could eventually influence its decision to allow it. Ramji led the BlackRock ETF business before moving to Vanguard.
Other experts also appear to agree with Balchunas’s take. Many previously predicted that Vanguard would eventually offer its users access to a Bitcoin ETF. One analyst noted that Vanguard will likely gain more exposure to Bitcoin through its VOO ETF once Strategy MSTR joins the S&P 500.
Vanguard stands alone as more institutions embrace Bitcoin
Vanguard’s decision not to issue Bitcoin ETFs or allow the trading of existing Bitcoin ETFs on its platform makes it unique compared to other asset issuers. The firm claims to focus on tested and trusted products to help investors protect their money, especially during downturns.
However, Bitcoin’s consistently strong performance means that many Vanguard users without exposure to the asset are now complaining. Interestingly, some customers are also considering migrating to other brokers offering access to Bitcoin products.
For instance, Fidelity and BlackRock, major competitors of Vanguard, have their own Bitcoin ETFs and allow users to trade other crypto ETFs on their platforms. Even better, these firms also allow other Bitcoin-focused products with Fidelity trading platforms, allowing exposure to Metaplanet stock.
Meanwhile, if Vanguard eventually changes its mind, it will not be the first traditional institution to do a 180-degree turnaround on Bitcoin. Investment bank JP Morgan recently announced that it will allow its customers to buy Bitcoin.
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon announced the move, which marks a complete departure from Dimon’s previous criticisms of the crypto industry and Bitcoin, which he considers a Ponzi scheme and tool for criminals.
Interestingly, Dimon’s anti-Bitcoin position remains with the executive. He notes that he will never buy BTC personally, but will let personal sentiment prevent JP Morgan customers from accessing it. He noted that he would defend customers’ right to buy Bitcoin just as he would defend a person’s right to smoke a cigarette.
Bitcoin steadies at $105k as the market looks for a new all-time high
While traditional institutions continue to change their stance on Bitcoin, the flagship crypto asset has been up almost 3% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. It now appears to have broken out of the $104,000 range after peaking at $106,814 today before settling above $105,000.
BTC’s positive performance means it has been up 11.88% year to date. Its positive performance has allowed altcoins to see massive gains today, even as they pale compared to long-term price movements.
It is unclear what is responsible for the recent increase in value, but there are lots of positive fundamentals backing it up. According to crypto analyst Carmelo Alemán, Bitcoin has accumulated over $906 billion in realized capitalization.
Realized capitalization describes the total amount invested in Bitcoin, which has been trending upward for four consecutive weeks. If that trend continues, experts believe BTC will reach a new ATH.
Bitcoin realized cap (Source: CryptoQuant)
He said:
“If the trend of increasing Realized Capitalization continues, suggesting ongoing investor confidence in Bitcoin, it is very likely that Bitcoin will surpass its ATH in the near future. This could set the stage for a historic bull run.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s spot net volume in the US dollar is now up on Binance, a signal that selling pressure has declined and buying activity is increasing.
