Cryptocurrency analyst James Van Straten has shared a remarkable analysis of Bitcoin’s recent price movements.
Van Straten argues that the record highs in question — $20,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021 and $109,000 in 2025 — do not accurately reflect investors’ profitability and market sentiment. Instead, he points out that the metric known as “realized price” is much more meaningful.
According to Van Straten, the realized price represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoins withdrawn from all exchanges and is used to understand the general cost base of the market. The average realized price for 2025 is $93,266. The current price of Bitcoin, around $105,000, shows that investors are making an average profit of around 12%.
After reaching a peak of $109,000 in late January, Bitcoin fell and briefly fell below its 2025 realized price. This is historically interpreted as a “capitulation” signal. Van Straten notes that this period of stress lasted until April 22, after which Bitcoin regained this critical cost floor.
The analyst explains how such moves provide critical signals for market cycles, citing examples from past years:
- 2024: Following ETF approval, Bitcoin falls to $49,000 after falling below its average cost floor, amid a decline in Japanese yen carry trades during the summer.
- 2023: Except for a brief dip during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, the price has generally traded above its cost floor.
Van Straten said that in the 2017 bull market, the large difference between the market price and the realized price represented excessive speculation, whereas in the 2018 bear market, the price reconciled with this metric, suggesting that the realized price acts as a kind of “floor support” in bear markets.
Finally, Van Straten notes that the realized price has continued to rise over time, and that by looking at this metric, Bitcoin has not only reached record levels, but has also become a maturing asset class over the long term. According to the analyst, this indicates that capital commitment to the network is increasing and the market is gaining a deeper structure.
“Instead of focusing on peak prices, it is much more important to track investors’ profitability over the total cost base to understand where Bitcoin is heading,” the analyst said.
*This is not investment advice.
