Prediction market prices a 70% chance of Trump’s re-election after assassination attempt 
Finance Jul 14, 2024 Share
Donald Trump was shot in the ear during a Pennsylvania rally on July 13, suddenly boosting the candidate’s popularity. The prediction market now prices a 70% chance of Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election, up 10% day-over-day.
Notably, Finbold retrieved data from Polymarket, revealing an impressive surge from a 60% to a 70% victory chance. The prediction market seems to strongly believe Trump will be the next United States president after the rally’s shooting.
As observed, the former president’s popularity has increased over time but had an impressive boost with the recent event. Related keywords are trending everywhere, evidencing the significance of what happened on Saturday for the country and the presidential election.
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Traders have placed over $255 million in this bet, leading the platform’s predictions.
Presidential election winner 2024. Source: Polymarket
More Donald Trump and presidential election’s related predictions
Moreover, Polymarket traders are also betting on related predictions to Donald Trump’s assassination attempt and the election. For example, the market puts a 79% chance of the shooter being a “rogue actor” while saying there is a 100% chance that the gun used in the event was real.
From another perspective, 45% of the market believes Joe Biden will drop out of the presidential race, dividing opinions.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden-related predictions. Source: Polymarket
How Polymarket’s prediction market works
Prediction markets have been provably accurate sources of future events, often more precise than legacy polls and surveys.
Notably, the cryptocurrency market and the use of cryptocurrencies to place bets and receive rewards have opened the doors for traders worldwide to profit from accurate predictions and asymmetries, increasing the value and accuracy of these markets as the volume and accessibility grew.
Polymarket is one of the leading prediction markets, built on the Ethereum (ETH) network and using Circle USD (USDC). The regulated stablecoin is the platform’s base currency to place bets and collect rewards.
Essentially, if someone believes Donald Trump has a better chance than 70% of winning the 2024 presidential election, he can profit from purchasing a share of this prediction, worth $0.70. If Trump wins, everyone with a “win” bet will receive $1 per share, profiting $0.30 per share.
As things develop, the odds of a win are expected to change, and the prediction market is now closely watching.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
